The Run Home after Round 15, predicted ladder, top eight, finals, ladder predictor, analysis, fixture

It was billed as a decisive round of footy, and with two months left, we’ve been given a strong top six – and six teams fighting for the last two spots.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.

Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?

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How does the Run Home work?

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round. It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom.

Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.

How AFL helped Dyson get physical | 01:21

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Melbourne vs Fremantle at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Carlton vs Richmond at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Collingwood at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Melbourne (15.55 projected wins)

2. Geelong Cats (15.1)

3. Brisbane Lions (14.95)

4. Fremantle (14.45)

5. Carlton (14.25)

6. Sydney Swans (14)

7. Collingwood (13.15)

8. Richmond (13)

9. Western Bulldogs (12.2)

10. St Kilda (12)

11. Gold Coast Suns (11.5)

12. Port Adelaide (10.95)

13. Adelaide Crows (8.3)

14. Hawthorn (7.95)

15. GWS Giants (7.35)

16. Essendon (6.1)

17. West Coast Eagles (4.25)

18. North Melbourne (2.95)

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.

Historic chance of playing finals from current record is calculated using data from the 1995-2019 seasons. For example, Melbourne is 11-3, and 100% of 11-3 teams in that period played finals.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.

Demons snap out of slump in style | 02:44

1. MELBOURNE (11-3, 139.2%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 17: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Port Adelaide at TIO Traeger Park

Round 19: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 22: Carlton at the MCG

Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 100%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest

As flagged last week, the Demons’ games against Brisbane and Fremantle are going to heavily impact the finishing order this year, and here we are – not just with Melbourne back on top of the ladder, but with everyone believing in them again. Funny that.

The Dees’ fixture remains very difficult. Their return game against the Lions in the final round is sure to be closer – Brisbane plays much better at home, and they should have a much healthier midfield.

But suddenly the Demons have a one-game lead at the top again – thanks, Carlton! – and thus are favourites to finish there. This is such a close-run season that can change with any big upset, but for now, the premiers are back in pole position.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.55 projected wins, finishing 1st

MIRACLE Henry mark breaks Tigers’ hearts | 00:57

2 GEELONG CATS (10-4, 125.6%)

Remaining games

Round 16: North Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium

Round 17: Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium

Round 18: Carlton at the MCG

Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Round 21: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium

Round 23: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 94%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

We can’t say we predicted ‘Atkins to Stengle to Henry’ as the decisive moment that might’ve swung Geelong’s season, but their combined brilliance gave the Cats a thrilling win in a true eight-point game against Richmond.

Instead of being level on points with the Tigers, Chris Scott’s men are second on percentage and two games clear of seventh, an enviable position given their remaining draw is much kinder than most contenders’.

We have them favourites to finish second now, but don’t read too much into that. A 0.15-win lead over Brisbane is essentially nothing, and they’re less than a win above fifth. They have advantages with their fixture and strong percentage, but they’re slight favourites at best.

The looming absence of Tom Stewart is a problem, as we saw late last year when the Cats went without him, though even if he misses a month you’d suspect Geelong can still beat North Melbourne and Port Adelaide.

But his moment of stupidity could swing games against the Demons and Blues, especially given the latter’s tall forwards. So while he might’ve won them the Richmond game, as the arguable best on ground, he could’ve lost them one or two more.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.1 projected wins, finishing 2nd

Cats edge Tigers in an instant classic! | 03:12

3. BRISBANE LIONS (10-4, 124.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba

Round 17: Essendon at the Gabba

Round 18: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba

Round 20: Richmond at the MCG

Round 21: Carlton at the Gabba

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Melbourne at the Gabba

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 94%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest

The loss to Melbourne did more damage to the perception of Brisbane than to their actual season. Unless they can produce a big performance in Round 20, few are going to head into September believing they can win one or more big finals at the MCG.

Yes, the Lions were poor on Thursday night, but they came in with a midfield performing below par – we’ve flagged that in columns over the last few weeks – and the absences of Zac Bailey and Dayne Zorko (who doesn’t really play pure midfield now, but can be thrown in there) were certainly felt.

We still believe in Brisbane as a top-four team, especially because of how much better they are at the Gabba. With five games left there, plus winnable away games against GWS and the sliding Saints, they still have a clear path to 15 wins, which should ensure them the double chance.

And as coaches always say, you’d rather be playing well in August and September than in June. Chris Fagan has time to fix what’s ailing his side.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.95 projected wins, finishing 3rd

4. FREMANTLE (10-4, 122.6%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium

Round 17: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 23: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 94%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

The Dockers’ first loss in Victoria this year shows exactly why their remaining fixture is tricky.

As always, they are a few goals worse away from home, and they’ve still got three games left in Melbourne against fellow contenders (though St Kilda is quickly sliding out of the ranks of contenders).

But, as always, Freo’s advantage playing at home (mostly) makes up for their travel burden. They should be able to win three of their remaining games in Perth; combine that with a couple of wins away, and that’s your 15, which should get you into the top four.

The next month will be crucial. We could see the Dockers going 4-0 but we could also see 2-2 or even 1-3 – in the latter scenarios, we’d expect them to drop out of the top four (at least temporarily), because Brisbane and Carlton have pretty kind next months.

As you can see with the projected win totals, we’re still tipping a Demons-Cats-Lions-Dockers top four in some order, but Saturday’s loss means Carlton is in the mix now. Again, the round of the eight-pointer strikes.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.45 projected wins, finishing 4th

Blues bounce back to beat Dockers | 01:00

5. CARLTON (10-4, 114.6%)

Remaining games

Round 16: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 18: Geelong Cats at the MCG

Round 19: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 94%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

Two wins inside the eight with eight rounds left, but more importantly, tied for second on wins.

The margin for error remains slim, but Saturday’s win over Fremantle means Carlton looks closer to finishing in the top four than missing out on finals entirely.

And suddenly the Blues are set up to pounce on a top four spot if any of the teams above them stumble, because they’ve got a pretty damn nice five weeks coming up. They’ll be favoured four times and if Tom Stewart isn’t playing, as we’d expect, Geelong is much more beatable.

We’re expecting some flip-flopping between Freo and Carlton over the run home. The Blues’ fixture is easier now, the Dockers’ fixture is easier late. So Michael Voss’ side needs to capitalise, and get to 15 wins (the typical bar for the top four) as soon as possible.

Otherwise they’ll be heading into some enormous games needing wins to avoid an elimination final.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.25 projected wins, finishing 5th

6. SYDNEY SWANS (9-5, 119.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Essendon at the MCG

Round 17: Western Bulldogs at the SCG

Round 18: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the SCG

Round 20: GWS Giants at the SCG

Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 94%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

Ah, sweet safety. The Swans look pretty close to finals-bound now, after taking care of a poor St Kilda side on Saturday night, in yet another of Round 15’s eight-pointers.

We have Sydney closer to the top four than missing the eight, but it feels a bit like last year when they were stuck in no man’s land in that fifth/sixth range.

They can change that over the next three weeks. We can assume they’ll beat Essendon, but then it’s the two toughest – and most important – games left on their fixture back to back.

Go 2-0 against the Bulldogs and Fremantle, and Sydney is a legitimate top four chance (presumably passing Fremantle and perhaps Carlton).

Go 1-1 and the top four is still doable, but they’d need to be pretty much perfect the rest of the way (especially if the loss is to Freo).

Go 0-2 and they’ll be fine making the eight, because you’d suggest they’ll be favoured in each of their last five games, but they’d look elimination final-bound. And we saw how that went last year.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14 projected wins, finishing 6th

Swans put the hurt on sliding Saints | 02:16

7. COLLINGWOOD (9-5, 106%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium

Round 17: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 18: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Essendon at the MCG

Round 20: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Round 21: Melbourne at the MCG

Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 23: Carlton at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 94%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

9-5. 9-5! Collingwood! In the year 2022! What?!

In combination with St Kilda and Gold Coast’s losses, this was a great weekend for Collingwood, with two of their direct ladder rivals copping costly defeats.

They didn’t exactly look incredible against the Giants, and the Suns will be tough next week as they’re playing for their season, but at this point the numbers are clearly pointing to the Magpies playing finals.

As long as they take care of business against North Melbourne, Adelaide and Essendon as you’d expect, they should find at least one more win somewhere, and that likely does it.

But stumble once and they become vulnerable, especially if the Bulldogs get on a run. That’s the one to watch for Collingwood fans – they should be donning Brisbane scarfs this coming Thursday night.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.15 projected wins, finishing 7th

Jordan De Goey breaks his silence | 01:15

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-6, 120.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 17: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 18: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 64%

Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest

As Josh Dunkley said after the comeback win over Hawthorn, “the finals start now” for the Western Bulldogs.

From 3-5, despite some wobbles, they’ve gotten back inside the eight with a strong percentage. They are a good team, but their next six weeks means they have to be a great one to play finals.

Not only is the Bulldogs’ next six weeks brutal – they’re probably favoured against the Saints, and maybe Freo, but that’s it? – but it comes as Richmond and Collingwood, seemingly the teams also fighting for seventh and eighth, have pretty easy runs.

That’s the maths at this point. The Tigers have Eagles-Suns-North. The Magpies have Suns-North-Crows. They’re both going 2-1 at worst, you’d suspect. So the Bulldogs have to match that… playing interstate against two top-six sides, and then against a Saints team playing for its season.

The good news is the Dogs’ percentage makes them exceedingly unlikely to miss the eight with 13 wins, and they could even sneak in with 12 if things fall their way. But they have to get there first.

As we said last week, they need to play like a flag contender just to make the eight. And at no point this season have they looked like a flag contender.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 projected wins, finishing 9th

Bulldogs bounce back to take down Hawks! | 02:19

9. RICHMOND (8-6, 116.2%)

Remaining games

Round 16: West Coast Eagles at the MCG

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium

Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 64%

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

They’re out of the eight after Collingwood’s win on Sunday afternoon, but the Tigers showed more than enough to prove they remain a genuine contender in 2022.

After all a game as close as theirs against Geelong was a coin flip – and if Tom Stewart hadn’t done something so terrible, that could’ve turned it from heads to tails. Alas, the send-off rule was not implemented midgame, and so Richmond loses the eight-pointer.

We’re still feeling pretty good about their finals chances. They should go into their next three games (at least) as favourites, arguably all eight depending on how you feel about Fremantle and Brisbane on the road compared to at home.

At worst, the Tigers should win five of six against the Eagles, Suns, Kangaroos, Power, Hawks and Bombers – something would have to go terribly wrong for them to do any worse. That’s 13 wins and, with a strong percentage, they’d be safe.

St Kilda’s apparent collapse is one fewer team for them to pass. The Tigers just have to hope Collingwood slips up one or twice, or that the Bulldogs don’t bulldoze through their murderer’s row of a fixture. The latter seems more likely.

Or Richmond could win seven or eight of their last eight games and threaten a top four spot. They’re two games back but we wouldn’t put it past them.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13 projected wins, finishing 8th

10. ST KILDA (8-6, 107.3%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 17: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 20: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Round 22: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 64%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

Let’s start with the positives for St Kilda this weekend. Richmond lost. Gold Coast too, that’s not bad for them. And, uhh… hmm.

Not only did the Saints lose their third consecutive game to drop out of the top eight, but they looked horrendous doing so. Now, we think they’ll play better than that most weeks – particularly when they’re not managing Paddy Ryder – but the North Melbourne game aside, they’ve had a very shaky six weeks.

And so they’re not playing like a finals side, right when their fixture forces them to do so. Every game left is entirely loseable, even West Coast in Perth, given how improved the Eagles have been over the last fortnight.

We have some faith the Saints will rebound, and playing six of their last eight home games keeps September a possibility, but it’s one that’s getting slimmer. Richmond and Collingwood each have three winnable games up next, which could open up a gap the Saints cannot close.

The Round 18 game against the Bulldogs shapes as an elimination final – even if St Kilda loses its next two, as most would predict. Win that, and the Saints can feasibly be 11-8 heading into a huge last three games.

Finals are gettable from there. But that’s the mark they have to be aiming at.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12 projected wins, finishing 10th

Sicily rips Naughton’s headband off! | 00:42

11. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-7, 110.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Collingwood at Metricon Stadium

Round 17: Richmond at Metricon Stadium

Round 18: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Metricon Stadium

Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Round 22: Geelong Cats at Metricon Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 48%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

The Suns’ season isn’t over but it took a serious blow via Sunday’s loss to Port Adelaide.

The way we see it, the top six is pretty safe (the 10-win teams should all make it, and Sydney on nine has an easy draw). So it’s between the Magpies, Bulldogs, Tigers, Saints, Suns and Power (kinda) for the last two spots in the eight.

The loss to the Power reduces Gold Coast’s margin for error dramatically, heading into two of their biggest ever home games, against Collingwood and Richmond.

Win them both and the Suns are right back in the mix, having beaten two of their direct ladder rivals (and we suspect the Bulldogs and Saints will lose games on the run home because their fixtures are much harder). They’d be 9-7 with likely wins to come against Essendon, West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne – remember, nobody has ever missed the top eight with 13 wins.

But lose one, or both, and that simply extends the leads the Magpies and/or Tigers hold over them. Leads that will probably be too big to make up.

So: they have to win their next two. Here we go.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.5 projected wins, finishing 11th

12. PORT ADELAIDE (7-7, 105.1%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 17: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Melbourne at TIO Traeger Park

Round 19: Geelong Cats at Adelaide Oval

Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 48%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

The Power kept their season alive with the win over Gold Coast – though it’s more likely they just ensured neither of them would play finals.

We said last week they needed to finish on a 6-3 or 7-2 run; now the equation is 5-3 or 6-2. That’s doable, especially when they get four more games at home plus the very winnable Essendon match-up.

Much like Gold Coast though, those wins need to include beating Collingwood and Richmond, since they’re the current favourites for seventh and eighth. Doing damage to your direct rivals is the name of the game.

They’ve won seven of nine (look out, Borg!) and beaten two fellow contenders over the last fortnight. They’re doing almost everything they need to do. They just have to keep on doing that.

Fox Footy’s projection: 10.95 projected wins, finishing 12th

Darcy Fogarty flies high for Crows! | 00:24

13. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-9, 85.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval

Round 17: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval

Round 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 20: Carlton at Adelaide Oval

Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium

Round 22: North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 0%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

In spirit the Crows are in the “won’t play finals” section, but we’ll keep them out for a little while longer, especially since they mathematically can. (As can North Melbourne, technically. Maybe. Depends on the draw actually.)

But hey, they beat North in Tassie and thus you’d expect them to beat North in Adelaide, too. So that should be six wins.

Finding a seventh, to match last year’s tally, is harder now that West Coast isn’t terrible. And the eighth projected by our numbers? You’ve got to get creative to spot that one.

Fox Footy’s projection: 8.3 projected wins, finishing 13th

Crows fly high over lackluster Kangaroos | 01:04

14. GWS GIANTS (4-10, 90.9%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Hawthorn at Giants Stadium

Round 17: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 18: Brisbane Lions at Manuka Oval

Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Essendon at Giants Stadium

Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Fremantle at Manuka Oval

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 7%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

“Next week! Hawks-Giants! Which team will lose and remain one of the most competitive bottom-four sides we can remember?! LIVE on Fox Footy!” – the ad we’ve just written for the promos department, hopefully they like it.

Fox Footy’s projection: 7.35 projected wins, finishing 15th

15. HAWTHORN (4-10, 87.5%)

Remaining games

Round 16: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 17: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium

Round 18: West Coast Eagles at the MCG

Round 19: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena

Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at UTAS Stadium

Round 22: Richmond at the MCG

Round 23: Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 7%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

The Hawks aren’t tanking, but if they were, this would be a masterclass in it – looking competitive almost every week, filling their fans with hope and optimism, showing their young talent has much more potential than their draft pedigree suggests… and yet losing.

Is it impossible Hawthorn win their next four games? Heck, their next six? We’re not tipping it but you look at the draw and you go, jeez, it’s at least possible. What a weird year.

Fox Footy’s projection: 7.95 projected wins, finishing 14th

WON’T PLAY FINALS

16. ESSENDON (3-11, 78.6%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Sydney Swans at the MCG

Round 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Round 18: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium

Round 22: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 0%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

Fox Footy’s projection: 6.1 projected wins, finishing 16th

Eagles snap losing streak over Bombers | 02:34

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-12, 55.8%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Richmond at the MCG

Round 17: Carlton at Optus Stadium

Round 18: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 19: St Kilda at Optus Stadium

Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium

Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium

Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Round 23: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 0%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 4.25 projected wins, finishing 17th

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-13, 52.2%)

Remaining games

Round 16: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Round 17: Collingwood at the MCG

Round 18: Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Round 19: Hawthorn at Blundstone Arena

Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium

Round 21: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 0%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

Fox Footy’s projection: 2.95 projected wins, finishing 18th

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